Strong U.S. middle market fundamentals may help the segment capture AI-driven tailwinds while offering relative insulation from tariff-related volatility.
authors
Christopher Bole
Christopher Bole
Vice President, Financial Writer
U.S. middle market revenue and employment growth (year over year)
Line chart showing U.S. middle market revenue and employment growth from 2013-2025.
Source: U.S. National Center for the Middle Market, as of December 31, 2025.

Today’s chart of the week highlights a key trend impacting private markets today. Explore this insight and more in our 2026 Private markets outlook: Forged not found: Selectivity shapes outcomes as momentum builds.

  • As markets contend with AI’s destabilizing impact on legacy software companies and renewed tariff uncertainty, the U.S. middle market may capture AI-driven tailwinds while remaining relatively insulated from tariff-driven volatility.
  • The U.S. middle market includes 200,000+ firms generating $10 million to $1 billion in annual revenue and represents one-third of private sector gross domestic product (GDP). In 2025, revenue and employment grew 11.7% and 7.8%, respectively, meaningfully outpacing larger public companies.1
  • The middle market may also be less exposed to today’s dominant market risks:
  • AI adoption, reshoring and new tax provisions may create tangible growth opportunities, reinforcing a supportive backdrop for private capital serving middle market businesses.
contributing authors
Christopher Bole
Christopher Bole
Vice President, Financial Writer
footnotes + disclosures
  1. National Center for the Middle Market, as of December 31, 2025.
  2. Pitchbook, as of December 31, 2025. Middle market encompasses deals with enterprise values between $25 million and $1 billion. Large buyout includes deals with enterprise values over $1 billion.

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